Meaning of the Saletime Forecast CLI
(CONFIDENCE LEVEL INDEX)

Any week we have an auction, we prepare a custom Sale Time Forecast for that specific place and time, up to 10 days prior. Our predictions tend to be more precise than the multi-county zone forecasts local radio and TV stations use. But no forecast model is perfect, and the atmosphere of our planet is subject to so many variables that it's impossible to measure every factor that affects weather. A person doesn't always know what it is that he doesn't know.

On a scale of 1 to 10, the Confidence Level Index tells you how much faith I have in the saletime prediction. A CLI of 10 is rare, and indicates a certainty approaching that of debt or taxes on all major elements of the forecast...usually temperature, precipitation, and wind. A CLI of 9 is still good, usually indicating only one forecast element is dubious (ie, temperature variance > ±2° possible, or precip timing could be a bit off). Indices of 8, 7, or 6 suggest additional forecast elenebts are less certain.

A CLI of 5 means you could do just as well with a coin toss. A lower index is very rare, but has happened, meaning most or maybe everything the forecast says will be wrong. However, even that little knowledge can help by warning us to prepare for anything.

The CLI and the forecast may change from day to day--usually becoming more definite with time, but not always. For that reason, I sometimes post my own thoughts below.

John Davis

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   SAT. 10:35 AM - Early morning storms are gone as expected, and 
late morning showers could pop up at any time. But our main con-
cern right now is a line of storms developing west of Coffeyville
that will move into Cherokee County later. The question is when 
and how fast it will move eastward.
   Best possibe scenaio is if it holds off until after 1:00 PM, 
and second best would be if it were to sweep through rapidly and
get out of the way before noon. Neither of these look too likely.
Instead, it appears we'll continue to have light showers off and
on until bigger storms arrive around noon.
   We are NOT expecting severe weather at the sale site, but
lightning is dangerous enough on its own.
   Our  plan as of now is to hold the sale as sheduled, but 
with the understanding that the auctioneer may have to announce
temporary delays if attendee or staff safety is at risk. We will
be in regular comtact with Cody, so heed any cautions he gives 
concerning lightning, in particular.