Meaning of the Saletime Forecast CLI
(CONFIDENCE LEVEL INDEX)

Any week we have an auction, we prepare a custom Saletime Forecast for that specific place and time. Our predictions tend to be more precise than the multi-county zone forecasts local radio and TV stations use. But no forecast model is perfect, and our atmosphere is subject to so many variables that it's impossible to measure everything.

On a scale of 1 to 10, the Confidence Level Index tells you how much faith I have in the saletime prediction. A CLI of 10 is rare, and indicates a certainty approaching that of debt or taxes on all major elements of the forecast...usually temperature, precipitation, and wind. A CLI of 9 is very good, usually indicating only one forecast element is dubious (ie, temperature variance > ±2° possible, or precip timing could be a bit off). Indices of 8, 7, or 6 suggest other forecast elements are less certain.

A CLI of 5 means you could do just as well with a coin toss. A lower index is very rare, but has happened, meaning that I expect most everything the forecast says will be wrong. However, even that can help by warning us to prepare for anything.

Some days, I post sdditional thoughts of my own below.

- John Davis

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    Saturday will be a pleasant day for our Mound Valley auction. 
The only uncertainty remaining in the forecast is how late into 
the morning the final widely scattered remnants of the ovenight 
storms may linger. Fortunately, the major forecast models are now
converging on an early morning solution for skies to clear.
    Temperatures and humiditity will combine to cause a bit of heat
index by noon, but if you drink adequate water, the breeze should
help most attendes remain comfortable throughout the sale.